How high can Hamilton and Ferrari climb this season?

The Chinese Grand Prix was a landmark moment for Lewis Hamilton, at the time. His first grand prix podium for Ferrari after more than a season with his new team, led to a sigh of relief more than anything to finally end that drought. The fact that it came at a track where he has excelled in the past did lead to an element of caution over whether it was a significant step forward in form, or more of a one-off.

Then came Canada, and the first time he had secured a second-place finish in red. Again, a strong Hamilton track, but this felt like a reinforcement of the fact Hamilton was feeling ever-more comfortable at Ferrari. To back it up in Monaco – despite Kimi Antonelli being in a different league on race day – was the confirmation.

But it still felt fanciful to suggest Hamilton would mount a title challenge from that point, even after moving into second place in the drivers’ championship. 66 points adrift of a dominant Mercedes car that had yet to be beaten on a Sunday, and in a Ferrari that hadn’t allowed a driver to visit the top step since late 2024.

Two things would need to happen to put any form of realistic pressure on Antonelli. The Italian would need to fail to score – having dropped just seven points in a grand prix all year – and Hamilton would need to start winning. That both then happened immediately in Barcelona changed the complexion somewhat, but is a title tilt really on the cards?

“They've always been super strong and I think one very strong point of theirs is reliability,” Antonelli said of Ferrari. “Their car is very reliable and if they keep putting in strong performance like this, they're going to be a threat.”

While Antonelli is considering the weaknesses of Mercedes that could be addressed, Lando Norris believes the key to any hopes of Hamilton or Charles Leclerc seriously challenging for the championship rests in the additional development and upgrade opportunities (ADUO) now on offer.

“We're lucky that Ferrari doesn't have a better engine at the minute,” Norris told Sky Sports in Spain. “If they had a better engine, they're dominating. They're the class of the field in terms of cornering performance at the minute.

“We're not even close to them. It's the realistic point of it. We're a long, long way from where we need to be. If they make improvements on the engine side, then they'll embarrass everyone. We need to really get our heads down and see what improvements we can do.”

Antonelli's breakthrough win early in the season opened the floodgates for him; could Hamilton's Barcelona drought-buster do likewise? Rudy Carezzevoli/Getty Images

Austria might not lend itself to Ferrari’s strengths in the same way due to the long straights and fewer corners, but that doesn’t mean the gap will necessarily grow significantly, either. Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff says Hamilton is “absolutely” in the title picture, as he’s particularly aware of how the seven-time world champion can access another level with the biggest prizes on the line.

“I’d rather not fight with him for a title, because I know what he’s capable of,” Wolff said. “He smells blood, he goes. I’ve seen it many years that suddenly the Lewis Hamilton train started to go, and then it’s very difficult to stop.

“We’re so early in the season and the gap is 41 points. You see a DNF where you’ve lost 25 points and it’s wide open. That’s why we can’t afford to not finish, and we need to just keep putting performance on the car and the power unit, keep not making mistakes – including the strategy – and stay absolutely on it.”

Despite the gains that Ferrari and Hamilton have been making, Wolff’s right to highlight Mercedes’ own role in any hopes. Barcelona was a race in which Hamilton might well have won regardless of the virtual safety car interruption, but Mercedes was still very much a factor and the gap between Antonelli and Hamilton was only set to reduce by seven points before reliability intervened.

Hamilton admits his thought process has been on singular gains to try and win a race again rather than an overall title challenge, and his experience tells him that the first victory – while a major personal milestone – still pales into insignificance against Mercedes’ run to start the year.

“The [win] in Silverstone in 2024 was in its own way a monumental moment for me, because it’s a moment where I never thought maybe that I’d ever get to win again,” Hamilton said. “And then after a year like last year, there was definitely moments that I was like, ‘Sheesh, maybe it is true that, you know, when you get to a certain point, you lose it.’

“But I’ve proven that you don’t. You always have it and it just takes work. It takes perseverance, that constant believing in yourself to tap into your inner self and keep yourself alive, keep yourself fit. And I feel great physically, racing with 19-year-olds who are doing amazing, but I feel great.

“It’s so early in the season to get to this point. These guys have really listened and really worked hard to add performance and be innovative. This year is all about innovation. You know, we came out with the bit on the rear exhaust. We came out with the rear wing – the Macarena – and this is what I was asking for last year.

“It was like this team has to be the leaders in that, and they’ve shown that they can and they will. And we’ve got a lot of work ahead of us. By no means is this something that’s just going to happen all the time. We’ve got a heavy, heavy, steep mountain to climb up ahead of us to try to do this as Mercedes has all year so far.”

But as we saw with Max Verstappen’s comeback against the McLarens in 2025, maximizing points when you’re uncompetitive can provide the platform to build on in order to put pressure on a previously dominant team. And once that first hint of parity appears, you can’t keep a competitor such as Hamilton from believing in what might be possible.

“I’ll definitely take it,” he said of the 25-point swing in Barcelona. “It’s a long, long way to go and they still have great pace, as you can see. But we’re going to keep working, we’re going to keep trying to close that gap.

“It’s not over, that’s for sure.”